He’s not flashy, he’s not loud. He shows calmness and experience. And while many previously deemed him not fit for California governor, the latest poll shows candidate Xavier Becerra at the top tier, less than a month away from the primary election on June 2.
The swift change happened after former Congressman Erick Swalwell’s ended his campaign due to sexual abuse allegations. An Emerson College poll showed Becerra going from 3% in March to 10% in April following that news.
Should his popularity continue to climb among registered voters, Becerra could become the first elected Latino governor since 1875 when Rumualdo Pacheco, of Mexican ancestry, served as California governor for approximately nine months and left office in December 1875.
The Biden-era Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Republican candidate Steve Hilton are tied in first place with 18% of voter support, according to a poll paid for by the California Democratic Party (CADEM) conducted between April 30 and May 2 and released on Monday. Undecided voters have also dropped from 24% in March to 14% in May.
Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, the only other Latino candidate in the race, remained at 2% per the new poll.
While it may look like a tie between a Republican and a Democrat, there is also the real possibility that in November the race could be between Becerra along with billionaire Tom Steyer, who has a 12% approval.
This is because of the top-two primary or “jungle primary” in California, where voters can pick any candidate regardless of party during the June 2 election. Then the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliations, according to Ballotpedia.
The analysis
As of February 2025, 23 million out of the eligible 27 million Californians were registered to vote, according to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) — in a state where over 41% of its population identifies as Latino.
Amada Armenta, director of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, said research shows that when minority candidates win office, it increases political trust amongst people in the same group.
“So in California, what that would mean is that Latinos would feel more trust in the government,” she said.
This includes a sense of belonging, legitimacy and more engagement in politics and political participation leading to more voting and civic engagement.
People also feel more likely to support the candidate that looks like them or they can have a beer with, according to researches.
Armenta said if a Latino governor is elected it is more likely to change who has access to institutional or agenda setting power. That means that people who tend to be underrepresented get these positions, they elevate issues that maybe weren’t seen as important in the past and they are more mindful about their appointment power, cabinets, judicial appointments and agency leadership.
“Those tend to be much more diverse when there is a minority executive in office, and they really tend to build a cross-racial coalition,” she said. “And they also tend to govern really broadly, and pay attention to things like equity, education, small businesses and so on.”
Following the allegations against Swalwell, Becerra’s popularity on social media skyrocketed, with supporters highlighting his experience as the HHHS Secretary under the Biden administration, his work as California Attorney General, where he fought for Dreamers and sued the Trump administration 122 times, among many other accomplishments.
Several social media pages have emerged supporting Becerra. There is also the new trend of calling him that “tío” (uncle) Becerra who solves the problems and for May 4th — international Star Wars Day — some clever content creators included “May the 4th be with the Becerra era.”
However, the entertaining content also has a purpose, according to more prominent content creators.
One of them is Michael Lemus, communications strategist and founder of @scholars_of_color and @arisewithlemus. He said Becerra has proven to have the experience at the state and federal level, and he’s relatable.
“Being Latino, being a first-generation college graduate and coming from an immigrant background, that’s something that I think is a bonus in terms of the representation,” he said.
Salvador Solorio-Ruiz, mayor of the city of Delano, is pushing for a Becerra win even though he’s not part of the candidate’s official campaign. He helps run the social media page @GenZforBecerra and has noticed the growing number of people getting interested and giving their support to the Latino candidate.
Adults 66 and over make up the largest share of registered voters (23%) while younger adults 18 to 25 are the smallest registered share (12%).
Becerra’s identity is something that adds meaning to the Gen Z mayor.
“How amazing it is that we are living in a time in which Latinos are being undermined and attacked, and for California to send a Latino to the governor’s mansion will be the biggest symbol that Latinos matter more than ever,” said Solorio-Ruiz.
Lemus said he posts this political information to his nearly 50,000 followers even when it’s difficult or controversial, because it’s needed.
“My main goal is for people to just be aware of the fact that we have an election coming and that people should be voting, and making sure that you know your registration is up to date and that you know where to access information regardless of what candidate you choose to go for,” he said.
As new polls keep appearing, Armenta said it is very difficult to provide an exact feel on voter sentiment as more political scientists and pollsters say the polls are less reliable than they used to be.
In California 45% of voters are registered Democrats, 25% Republicans and 22% independent, according to the PPIC.
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